GET Financial Education Series - Forex
Intermarket Relationships – Lesson 14
You need at least Flash Player 7 to view this website.
Please go to:
http://www.adobe.com
to download the latest version.
The forex market is the largest global financial market. While no other
financial market can compare to the size of the forex market, these other
financial markets do impact the forex market. For instance, the U.S. bond
market can affect the value of the U.S. dollar (USD) just as the Japanese
stock market can affect the value of the Japanese yen (JPY).
To become a successful forex trader, you will need to learn the relationships
that exist among the world's financial markets and how these relationships
may affect the currency pairs you are trading.
Oftentimes, you can receive advanced warning of what is going to happen
in the forex market by watching what is happening currently in other financial
markets. For example, if you see the value of gold rising quickly, you can
look for a corresponding rise in the value of the AUD/USD. Once you know
what to look for, you can take advantage of the same correlations that the
large institutional investors are watching.
In this section, we will be focusing on how the following markets affect
the forex market:
- Commodity market
- Bond market
- Stock market
Commodity Market and the Forex Market
The rise of global demand for commodities has tied the commodity market
and the Forex market closer together. Virtually every economy around the
world has to import some of the commodities it consumes. To buy these
commodities, importers must exchange their currency for the currency of
the economy from which they are importing the goods. This transaction
drives the demand for the exporter's currency higher, which increases
the value of that currency. This transaction also drives the supply of
the importer's currency lower, which decreases the value of that currency.
Three of the major currencies the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Australian
dollar (AUD) and the New Zealand dollar (NZD) are closely related to commodity
values because they are major commodity exporters. As the price of commodities
rises, the value of these currencies typically rises. As the price of
commodities falls, the value of these currencies typically falls.
Each of these commodity currencies, as they are known among forex traders,
is affected differently by various commodities. For example, the Australian
dollar is highly correlated with gold. As the price of gold goes higher,
the value of the Australian dollar also goes higher. As the price of gold
goes lower, the value of the Australian dollar also goes lower. While
this correlation isn't perfect, it is significant.
Paying attention to what is happening in the commodity market during
the next few years can lead you to greater profits in your forex trading.
Demand from global growth should continue to push commodity prices higher
for years to come. Be prepared to take advantage not only of the currencies
that will strengthen as commodity prices increase but also of the currencies
that will weaken.
Bond Market and the Forex Market
Next to the Forex market, the global bond market is the second largest
financial market in the world. Governments, institutions and individual
investors all participate actively in the global bond market, and each
one of these market participants is looking for the same thing: a profitable
return on investment.
Government bonds make up the largest percentage of the global bond market.
These bonds are typically viewed as risk-free investments because they
are backed by the full good will and faith of strong national governments.
However, not all government bonds were created equal. Some governments
pay a higher interest rate for their bonds than do others. International
investors take these interest rates into account when they are deciding
where to invest their money. Typically, bonds with higher interest rates
are more attractive to investors as long as the economies covering the
bonds are relatively stable.
Investors who wish to buy government bonds must buy these bonds with
the currency of the represented government. If international investors
wish to buy U.S. government bonds, they must first exchange their currencies
for U.S. dollars (USD). This increased demand for U.S. dollars (USD) drives
the value of the USD higher. At the same time, the increased supply of
international currencies on the market drives the value of these currencies
lower.
Knowing which governments offer higher interest rates on their government
bonds and which bonds are gaining popularity among international investors
will help you know which currencies to buy and which currency to sell.
Fortunately for you, the international bond market rarely changes directions
instantaneously. Rather, it cycles in longer-term, somewhat predictable
trends that you can exploit.
Stock Markets and the Forex Market
Individual investors around the world seem to watch stock markets more
closely than any other market. Stocks are exciting, they have been around
for a while and most individual investors can relate to the companies
in which they are buying stock. When times are good in the stock market,
money flows in. When times are bad and the stock market, money flows out.
Globalization has made it easier for investors from one country to invest
in the stock markets of other countries. If investors see that stocks
in the United Kingdom are performing well, they will rush to buy those
stocks. If they see that stocks in Japan are starting to outperform stocks
in Europe, they will take their money out of Europe and put it into Japan.
Stocks traded in the currency of the economy of which should they are
a part. To invest in stocks in the United Kingdom, foreign investors must
first convert their currencies into British pounds (GBP). This increased
demand for British pounds (GBP) drives the value of the GBP higher. At
the same time, the increased supply of international currencies on the
market drives the value of these currencies lower.
Forex investors closely watch how the stock markets in major countries
are performing. If the stock market in one country starts outperforming
the stock market in another country, forex investors know that other investors
will most likely be moving their money from the country with the weaker
stock market to the country with the stronger stock market. This will
drive the value of the currency for the country with the stronger stock
market higher and the value of the currency for the country with the weaker
stock market lower. By buying the currency from the country with the stronger
stock market into selling a currency from the country with the weaker
stock market, you can potentially make a handsome profit.
Regional material: Asian
Exports Influenced by US and China
Asia is largely dependent on exports to the rest of the world, especially
the U.S., and a slowdown there will see significant effects upon Asian
economies and currencies.
Rising inflation derived from world commodity price increases and energy
demands have a clear and marked effect on the local markets; we are
already seeing first and second wave effects in Asia, with China announcing
a very high CPI of 7.7% expected inflation.
For most Asian economies the response is slow and gradual appreciation
of their currency to fight inflation (as this makes imports cheaper)
but their exports less competitive as their costs are denominated in
their local currency. This will have a net effect of slowing down the
economy while battling inflation.